Статья В.Ю. Катасонова «Наш ответ Чемберлену: о санкциях России против Запада» на английском языке с сайта «Свободный форум Приднестровья» (forum-pridnestrovie.info).
Оригинал статьи на русском языке
Yesterday the head of the Federation Council Committee for constitutional law Andrei Klishas said that, the upper House of Parliament a Bill is, providing for the confiscation of property, the assets and accounts of foreign companies. Он заявил, This will be our response to the threat of the West to impose economic sanctions on Russia. So to speak, «our response to Chamberlain» (recall, that this slogan appeared in February 1927 years in the Soviet press in response to the note from the British Government, signed by Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain.). Документ, as explained by Senator, provides for immediate freezing of assets, but only give the President and the Government authority to such a freeze. Later in an interview with RBC Klishas explained, «If the topic of sanctions will not discharge, the draft law could be postponed indefinitely «.
The Senator’s initiative has generated a lot of comments in the media of different nature from enthusiastically positive responses-to skeptical and even bitter ratings. Could not get past statements by Klišasa and I. His attitude to the Bill Senator I would be expressed in three phrases: «Better late, than never», «It Is Necessary To, but not enough», «It is better to do, something to talk about «.
Of course, power to impose economic sanctions against other States should have been given to the President of the Russian Federation and the Government long ago. Maybe, they should be fixed in the Constitution of the Russian Federation. After all, in today’s world, economic sanctions are an important instrument of foreign policy of Western countries. Even more important, the use of the armed forces (or threat of their use). Particularly active in this tool are two countries-the United States and United Kingdom. There exists a detailed work, related to the adoption of decisions on the imposition of economic sanctions and liability for non-performance of these decisions. In the United States, some types of sanctions, the President has the right to impose, some Congress. Interestingly, that the power to impose economic sanctions against foreign States even have separate States, and they make extensive use of this right. To date, the United States and its allies imposed certain sanctions against dozens of countries, в которых, According to the experts, home to at least half the world’s population.
For Russia, this tool is extremely useful. Take the problem of our countrymen in the near abroad. Not only in Ukraine, but also in the Baltic States, Moldova, Georgia etc. We, of course, use sometimes any levers of pressure upon our neighbours, When they begin to oppress our fellow. But all this is artisanal level. And occasionally, haphazardly. Как правило, through consumer rights, which is given an assignment to find some crime in the goods, coming to us by import. Let this lever remains, but it is not enough. Especially for a country, как Россия, which is the largest on the Eurasian continent oil and gas exporter. And Europe millions of jobs.
Thank you, that first raised the issue of legal Klishas justify the use of the instrument of economic sanctions by Russia. But, saying «a», Senator suddenly freaked out, but instead of the expected from the «b», He crawfished. I recall his words: «If the topic of sanctions will not discharge, the draft law could be postponed indefinitely «. Why? – This law was need another twenty years ago. To war (including economic) We should prepare in advance, and not, When it is. Imagine, that the Russian President would not have the status of Commander-in-Chief, and developers of the Constitution would say, that such authority it can grant the Parliament only after the outbreak of war. Inter alia, a global hot war today (Glory to God!) no. But the global economic war goes. Does the height of the upper House of our Parliament this is not visible?
And if our Parliament still would adopt the proposed Act Klišasom, that, of course, It will not be sufficient for the, to respond effectively to our partners, in the context of global economic warfare can be named our enemies. Need a package of measures, legalization of which will require the adoption of new laws, amendments to existing laws, Presidential decrees, подзаконных актов. I will name the most priority steps.
Our position in the «economic war». To understand their meaning, Here is a table, that shows the ratio of our foreign assets and our obligations to foreigners (This is called «the international investment position of the country»).
International investment position of the Russian Federation to the 01.01.2013 (billion. $)
|Type of assets/liabilities
|Obligations to foreigners
|The net assets of the (4) = (2) – (3)
|Portfolio investments and derivative financial instruments
|International reserves in foreign currency
Source: the data of the Bank of Russia.
The table shows, that our overseas assets exceed our liabilities to non-residents (foreign States, banks, companies). Net investment position of Russia, According to the International Monetary Fund methodology, is equal to 153,5 billion. USD. What it means? Imagine, the West begins with us economic war «to the last», We completely «destroy» their assets (in the table they are reflected as liabilities to foreigners «), and they «consume» our foreign assets. In such a scenario, our net loss will amount to 153,5 billion. USD. In fact, our net loss will be less, because in foreign assets include monetary gold, that is physically located on the territory of the Russian Federation (Unlike many other countries, that store their gold in the United States). That is, to confiscate Gold our enemy can not. With that in mind, the net loss of Russia of «economic war» will be 102,5 billion. USD.
For all types of private investment (direct, portfolio and other) net winnings will be on our side. The enemy suffered heavy losses, especially on such a position, as portfolio investment (These are investments in different securities). In General, for all types of private investment we will have a net gain of 384,2 billion. USD. And here is the «Achilles heel» of Russia of «economic war» will be its international reserves. The foreign assets of monetary authorities in the person of the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. Over the years, the two organizations had worked actively on our opponent’s «economic war», deliberately reducing the economic security of Russia. The picture is of a very general nature, There are many subtle nuances, I have this short story I have no way to tell.
Urgent measures to prepare Russia to «economic war». Nonetheless, even this simple picture prompts, What measures should be taken to ensure, to combat the enemy under the «economic war». Here is a brief list of these measures.
1. The rapid decline in international reserves of the Russian Federation. This is a very easy task, Since the enemy had long established system of counteraction in case, If a country starts to dump large quantities of their foreign exchange reserves. However, China, whom, known, the largest foreign exchange reserves, has accumulated some experience of such dumping.
2. The rapid decline in international reserves would actually mean the dismantling of the current model of money issue, centred on foreign exchange reserves. Thus, need a radical restructuring of the Central Bank, his shift from lending Western economies on the crediting of economy of the Russian Federation.
3. Any amount of international reserves of the country still needed. But it should not be viewed as providing cash rouble;, but as a strategic asset in the event of war (not only the economic, but also hot). These reserves should be translated entirely into monetary gold. All the spoil of «yellow metal» on the territory of the Russian Federation to send the gold reserves.
4. Collapse private investment of Russian organizations and companies abroad. Repatriation of foreign private assets in Russia. In particular, the adoption of Presidential Decree (or law), requiring re-registration of offshore companies of Russian origin in the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation. For the term of not more than 3 months. In the event of non-compliance with this requirement, the nationalization of the natural assets of these offshore companies, located on the territory of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION.
5. Bans on free cross-border movement of capital. Actually the full restoration of the law on currency regulation and currency control (the amendments made to it in the middle of the last decade virtually eliminated all barriers to the cross-border movement of capital).
The last point I would like to say, the overlapping boundaries for capital must be made quickly and without any preliminary discussions. That, that suggested the Senator Klishas, We need to. But, all appearances, the Senator didn’t really understand, how the world economy and international finance. His loud announcement on possible (only possible!) adoption of the law on the confiscation of assets and other property by non-residents it only alerted foreign investors. Most of the so-called «foreign investors» – banal speculators, that work only with liquid assets and tools. Following statements by the Klišasa they will pack their suitcases quickly with currency and under cover of the night left the «wild», «necivilizovannuû» country. Yet finally slamming the door, namely – obvaliv our ruble. Sorry, our «deputies» have a very vague idea of what, What is an «economic war». In it, as in conventional war, the winner is the one, who adheres to the principle of secrecy and surprise.
Valentin Katasonov, doctor of economic sciences, professor, Russian economic society of. S.f. Sharapova